When superpowers meet: What’s at stake at the upcoming summit between the US and China

Given the current geopolitical situation, there is a lot at stake with the upcoming summit between the United States and China scheduled in Beijing from May 14 to 15. The Independent Singapore gives you a rundown on what’s on the agenda, what the implications are for both superpowers and for the rest of the world, which country is at an advantage going in, and what a win would look like for both.

The summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had originally been planned for late March or early April but was since delayed due to the war in the Middle East, which began on Feb 28 when the US and Israel started bombing Iran.

On March 26, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt announced the dates for Mr Trump’s “long-awaited meeting with President Xi in China.”

The US President, in turn, said in a social media post, “I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a monumental event.”

What’s on the agenda

The top priority on the agenda is trade and economic stabilisation, with tariffs, trade imbalances, and industrial policy disputes expected to be up for discussion. Furthermore, there is also the possibility of China buying US goods such as Boeing aircraft and agricultural products, as well as talks on rare earth supply chains and export controls.

As can be expected, geopolitics and security will also be discussed, specifically the war in the Middle East, which is affecting practically every country, given the energy crisis and disruption to supply chains. 

Importantly, analysts say that China’s role as a diplomatic intermediary could be part of the discussions.

Taiwan and security in Asia are also likely to be on the table, given the support that the US has extended to Taipei.

What’s at stake

Because the summit is between superpowers, the meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump may have far-reaching implications.

On a global level, the summit may affect the stability between the world’s two largest economies as well as energy markets amid the Middle East conflict.

For the United States, what’s at stake is its management of inflation and supply chains. The US will want to avoid a trade crisis with China while it is at war against Iran, as well as maintain secure alliances in the region.

Meanwhile, for China, what is probably the most important is securing its energy flows and export markets. Additionally, with the US busy with the war in Iran, China may be looking to broaden its diplomatic influence.

What counts as a ‘win’ for each

A win for the United States would primarily be an economic one. Since the war began, economists have raised their risk assessments of a US contraction. China’s commitment to large-scale purchases of goods and progress on trade imbalance or market access would count as wins for Mr Trump.

If China cooperates with the US’s designs, or at least remains neutral on the Iran war, this will also be seen in a positive light.

A win for China would likewise be in terms of economic gains, such as reduced tariffs or fewer restrictions. If China can walk away with more stability without major concessions, this would also be a plus.

Moreover, a win for China would also look like the US recognising it as a key global mediator.

Who’s in a stronger position

Coming in, it appears that China may have a stronger hand to play, in no small part due to the goodwill the US has lost due to the Iran war. 

Also, while the US is strategically stretched by the war, China has had a little more time to shape the agenda.

Nevertheless, both countries are likely to want to choose stability over confrontation, and if both sides can claim success in terms of trade purchases, confidence-building steps, even if major structural conflicts are left unresolved, the US and China can both walk away with some satisfaction. /TISG

Read also: Singaporeans expect China’s influence in Asia to surpass the United States: IPS Survey