Beijing and Tokyo locked in showdown despite Trump intervention

Back-to-back phone calls between U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of Japan and China have done little to ease the mounting tension between Beijing and Tokyo. On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi spoke with Trump, just hours after he had a separate conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Experts warn that a clear path toward de-escalation remains uncertain.

Following her call, Takaichi confirmed that the discussion included China’s relations with Japan, a topic made tense by her recent remarks on how Japan might respond if China attacked Taiwan. Meanwhile, Xi pressed Trump on Taiwan during their Monday call, urging Washington to uphold the post-World War II international order. Trump, however, made no public mention of Taiwan, instead focusing on issues such as Ukraine, fentanyl, soybeans, and a planned trip to Beijing in April. Xi is expected to visit the U.S. in 2026.

Taiwan at the heart of the tension

Analysts say Xi’s emphasis on Taiwan signals Beijing’s hope that Washington can influence Takaichi to soften her rhetoric. “Takaichi cannot retract her statement, and Beijing knows that,” noted Eurasia Group analysts David Boling and Jeremy Chan. “As long as Takaichi remains prime minister, it’s hard to see relations improving much.”

China has demanded that Takaichi withdraw her comments, but she has only promised to avoid discussing specific scenarios in the future. Alice Han, director for China at advisory firm Greenvale, explained that Xi “prioritises Taiwan as part of his legacy,” while the Trump administration appears more hesitant to commit U.S. forces, focusing instead on trade relations with Beijing.

Economic pressure and a lingering standoff

Beijing has also tried to exert economic pressure on Tokyo, restricting Japanese seafood imports, discouraging Chinese citizens from travelling to Japan, and urging Chinese residents in Japan to be vigilant. Despite these measures, analysts say both sides have strong incentives to avoid military conflict.

“Both sides want to avoid a military clash, keeping the odds of an unintended conflict between China and Japan quite low,” said Boling and Chan. Past cases of Chinese economic coercion against South Korea and Australia, however, suggest that a resolution could take years. A recent visit to Beijing by a senior Japanese diplomat failed to ease tensions, leaving analysts to conclude, “There’s no room for compromise. We’re probably going to be living with this crisis for a little while longer.”